What record should a team expect over 17 games?

If every game is an independent win with probability p, the number of wins follows a binomial distribution. This page shows the chance of each possible final record, so you can see how rare a perfect 17-0 is next to a merely great 14-3.

Per-game win probability (%):

How to read it

• Expected wins are simply 17 × p. A 75% team averages about 12.8 wins.
• Going unbeaten needs every one of 17 games, so it is p¹⁷: about 1.0% at 75%.
• Real games are not identical: a mix of easy and hard opponents changes the exact numbers, but the shape stays the same.

Want to test it yourself? 17-0 Game is a free browser NFL season sim where you draft a roster from random teams and eras and try to finish 17-0: https://17-0game.org/

Made by the 17-0 Game team.